The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology Read online

  Preparing the Defenses

  Strong AI. Returning to the Past?

  The Idea of Relinquishment

  Broad Relinquishment. Fine-Grained Relinquishment. Dealing with Abuse. The Threat from Fundamentalism. Fundamentalist Humanism.

  Development of Defensive Technologies and the Impact of Regulation

  Protection from “Unfriendly” Strong AI. Decentralization. Distributed Energy. Civil Liberties in an Age of Asymmetric Warfare.

  A Program for GNR Defense

  CHAPTER NINE

  Response to Critics

  A Panoply of Criticisms

  The Criticism from Incredulity

  The Criticism from Malthus

  Exponential Trends Don’t Last Forever. A Virtually Unlimited Limit.

  The Criticism from Software

  Software Stability. Software Responsiveness. Software Price-Performance. Software Development Productivity. Software Complexity. Accelerating Algorithms. The Ultimate Source of Intelligent Algorithms.

  The Criticism from Analog Processing

  The Criticism from the Complexity of Neural Processing

  Brain Complexity. A Computer’s Inherent Dualism. Levels and Loops.

  The Criticism from Microtubules and Quantum Computing

  The Criticism from the Church-Turing Thesis

  The Criticism from Failure Rates

  The Criticism from “Lock-In”

  The Criticism from Ontology: Can a Computer Be Conscious?

  Kurzweil’s Chinese Room.

  The Criticism from the Rich-Poor Divide

  The Criticism from the Likelihood of Government Regulation

  The Unbearable Slowness of Social Institutions.

  The Criticism from Theism

  The Criticism from Holism

  Epilogue

  How Singular? Human Centrality.

  Resources and Contact Information

  Appendix: The Law of Accelerating Returns Revisited

  Notes

  Index

  * * *

  Acknowledgments

  I’d like to express my deep appreciation to my mother, Hannah, and my father, Fredric, for supporting all of my early ideas and inventions without question, which gave me the freedom to experiment; to my sister Enid for her inspiration; and to my wife, Sonya, and my kids, Ethan and Amy, who give my life meaning, love, and motivation.

  I’d like to thank the many talented and devoted people who assisted me with this complex project:

  At Viking: my editor, Rick Kot, who provided leadership, enthusiasm, and insightful editing; Clare Ferraro, who provided strong support as publisher; Timothy Mennel, who provided expert copyediting; Bruce Giffords and John Jusino, for coordinating the many details of book production; Amy Hill, for the interior text design; Holly Watson, for her effective publicity work; Alessandra Lusardi, who ably assisted Rick Kot; Paul Buckley, for his clear and elegant art design; and Herb Thornby, who designed the engaging cover.

  Loretta Barrett, my literary agent, whose enthusiastic and astute guidance helped guide this project.

  Terry Grossman, M.D., my health collaborator and coauthor of Fantastic Voyage: Live Long Enough to Live Forever, for helping me to develop my ideas on health and biotechnology through 10,000 e-mails back and forth, and a multifaceted collaboration.

  Martine Rothblatt, for her dedication to all of the technologies discussed in this book and for our collaboration in developing diverse technologies in these areas.

  Aaron Kleiner, my long-term business partner (since 1973), for his devotion and collaboration through many projects, including this one.

  Amara Angelica, whose devoted and insightful efforts led our research team. Amara also used her outstanding editing skills to assist me in articulating the complex issues in this book. Kathryn Myronuk, whose dedicated research efforts made a major contribution to the research and the notes. Sarah Black contributed discerning research and editorial skills. My research team provided very capable assistance: Amara Angelica, Kathryn Myronuk, Sarah Black, Daniel Pentlarge, Emily Brown, Celia Black-Brooks, Nanda Barker-Hook, Sarah Brangan, Robert Bradbury, John Tillinghast, Elizabeth Collins, Bruce Damer, Jim Rintoul, Sue Rintoul, Larry Klaes, and Chris Wright. Additional assistance was provided by Liz Berry, Sarah Brangan, Rosemary Drinka, Linda Katz, Lisa Kirschner, Inna Nirenberg, Christopher Setzer, Joan Walsh, and Beverly Zibrak.

  Laksman Frank, who created many of the attractive diagrams and images from my descriptions, and formatted the graphs.

  Celia Black-Brooks, for providing her leadership in project development and communications.

  Phil Cohen and Ted Coyle, for implementing my ideas for the illustration on page 322, and Helene DeLillo, for the “Singularity Is Near” photo at the beginning of chapter 7.

  Nanda Barker-Hook, Emily Brown, and Sarah Brangan, who helped manage the extensive logistics of the research and editorial processes.

  Ken Linde and Matt Bridges, who provided computer systems support to keep our intricate work flow progressing smoothly.

  Denise Scutellaro, Joan Walsh, Maria Ellis, and Bob Beal, for doing the accounting on this complicated project.

  The KurzweilAI.net team, who provided substantial research support for the project: Aaron Kleiner, Amara Angelica, Bob Beal, Celia Black-Brooks, Daniel Pentlarge, Denise Scutellaro, Emily Brown, Joan Walsh, Ken Linde, Laksman Frank, Maria Ellis, Matt Bridges, Nanda Barker-Hook, Sarah Black, and Sarah Brangan.

  Mark Bizzell, Deborah Lieberman, Kirsten Clausen, and Dea Eldorado, for their assistance in communication of this book’s message.

  Robert A. Freitas Jr., for his thorough review of the nanotechnology-related material.

  Paul Linsay, for his thorough review of the mathematics in this book.

  My peer expert readers who provided the invaluable service of carefully reviewing the scientific content: Robert A. Freitas Jr. (nanotechnology, cosmology), Ralph Merkle (nanotechnology), Martine Rothblatt (biotechnology, technology acceleration), Terry Grossman (health, medicine, biotechnology), Tomaso Poggio (brain science and brain reverse-engineering), John Parmentola (physics, military technology), Dean Kamen (technology development), Neil Gershenfeld (computational technology, physics, quantum mechanics), Joel Gershenfeld (systems engineering), Hans Moravec (artificial intelligence, robotics), Max More (technology acceleration, philosophy), Jean-Jacques E. Slotine (brain and cognitive science), Sherry Turkle (social impact of technology), Seth Shostak (SETI, cosmology, astronomy), Damien Broderick (technology acceleration, the Singularity), and Harry George (technology entrepreneurship).

  My capable in-house readers: Amara Angelica, Sarah Black, Kathryn Myronuk, Nanda Barker-Hook, Emily Brown, Celia Black-Brooks, Aaron Kleiner, Ken Linde, John Chalupa, and Paul Albrecht.

  My lay readers, who provided keen insights: my son, Ethan Kurzweil, and David Dalrymple.

  Bill Gates, Eric Drexler, and Marvin Minsky, who gave permission to include their dialogues in the book, and for their ideas, which were incorporated into the dialogues.

  The many scientists and thinkers whose ideas and efforts are contributing to our exponentially expanding human knowledge base.

  The above-named individuals provided many ideas and corrections that I was able to make thanks to their efforts. For any mistakes that remain, I take sole responsibility.

  The Singularity Is Near

  PROLOGUE

  * * *

  The Power of Ideas

  I do not think there is any thrill that can go through the human heart like that felt by the inventor as he sees some creation of the brain unfolding to success.

  —NIKOLA TESLA, 1896, INVENTOR OF ALTERNATING CURRENT

  At the age of five, I had the idea that I would become an inventor. I had the notion that inventions could change the world. When other kids were wondering aloud what they wanted to be, I already had the conceit that I knew what I was going to be. The rocket ship to the moon that I was then building (almost a decade before President Kennedy’s challe
nge to the nation) did not work out. But at around the time I turned eight, my inventions became a little more realistic, such as a robotic theater with mechanical linkages that could move scenery and characters in and out of view, and virtual baseball games.

  Having fled the Holocaust, my parents, both artists, wanted a more worldly, less provincial, religious upbringing for me.1 My spiritual education, as a result, took place in a Unitarian church. We would spend six months studying one religion—going to its services, reading its books, having dialogues with its leaders—and then move on to the next. The theme was “many paths to the truth.” I noticed, of course, many parallels among the world’s religious traditions, but even the inconsistencies were illuminating. It became clear to me that the basic truths were profound enough to transcend apparent contradictions.

  At the age of eight, I discovered the Tom Swift Jr. series of books. The plots of all of the thirty-three books (only nine of which had been published when I started to read them in 1956) were always the same: Tom would get himself into a terrible predicament, in which his fate and that of his friends, and often the rest of the human race, hung in the balance. Tom would retreat to his basement lab and think about how to solve the problem. This, then, was the dramatic tension in each book in the series: what ingenious idea would Tom and his friends come up with to save the day?2 The moral of these tales was simple: the right idea had the power to overcome a seemingly overwhelming challenge.

  To this day, I remain convinced of this basic philosophy: no matter what quandaries we face—business problems, health issues, relationship difficulties, as well as the great scientific, social, and cultural challenges of our time—there is an idea that can enable us to prevail. Furthermore, we can find that idea. And when we find it, we need to implement it. My life has been shaped by this imperative. The power of an idea—this is itself an idea.

  Around the same time that I was reading the Tom Swift Jr. series, I recall my grandfather, who had also fled Europe with my mother, coming back from his first return visit to Europe with two key memories. One was the gracious treatment he received from the Austrians and Germans, the same people who had forced him to flee in 1938. The other was a rare opportunity he had been given to touch with his own hands some original manuscripts of Leonardo da Vinci. Both recollections influenced me, but the latter is one I’ve returned to many times. He described the experience with reverence, as if he had touched the work of God himself. This, then, was the religion that I was raised with: veneration for human creativity and the power of ideas.

  In 1960, at the age of twelve, I discovered the computer and became fascinated with its ability to model and re-create the world. I hung around the surplus electronics stores on Canal Street in Manhattan (they’re still there!) and gathered parts to build my own computational devices. During the 1960s, I was as absorbed in the contemporary musical, cultural, and political movements as my peers, but I became equally engaged in a much more obscure trend: namely, the remarkable sequence of machines that IBM proffered during that decade, from their big “7000” series (7070, 7074, 7090, 7094) to their small 1620, effectively the first “minicomputer.” The machines were introduced at yearly intervals, and each one was less expensive and more powerful than the last, a phenomenon familiar today. I got access to an IBM 1620 and began to write programs for statistical analysis and subsequently for music composition.

  I still recall the time in 1968 when I was allowed into the secure, cavernous chamber housing what was then the most powerful computer in New England, a top-of-the-line IBM 360 Model 91, with a remarkable million bytes (one megabyte) of “core” memory, an impressive speed of one million instructions per second (one MIPS), and a rental cost of only one thousand dollars per hour. I had developed a computer program that matched high-school students to colleges, and I watched in fascination as the front-panel lights danced through a distinctive pattern as the machine processed each student’s application.3 Even though I was quite familiar with every line of code, it nonetheless seemed as if the computer were deep in thought when the lights dimmed for several seconds at the denouement of each such cycle. Indeed, it could do flawlessly in ten seconds what took us ten hours to do manually with far less accuracy.

  As an inventor in the 1970s, I came to realize that my inventions needed to make sense in terms of the enabling technologies and market forces that would exist when the inventions were introduced, as that world would be a very different one from the one in which they were conceived. I began to develop models of how distinct technologies—electronics, communications, computer processors, memory, magnetic storage, and others—developed and how these changes rippled through markets and ultimately our social institutions. I realized that most inventions fail not because the R&D department can’t get them to work but because the timing is wrong. Inventing is a lot like surfing: you have to anticipate and catch the wave at just the right moment.

  My interest in technology trends and their implications took on a life of its own in the 1980s, and I began to use my models to project and anticipate future technologies, innovations that would appear in 2000, 2010, 2020, and beyond. This enabled me to invent with the capabilities of the future by conceiving and designing inventions using these future capabilities. In the mid-tolate 1980s, I wrote my first book, The Age of Intelligent Machines.4 It included extensive (and reasonably accurate) predictions for the 1990s and 2000s, and ended with the specter of machine intelligence becoming indistinguishable from that of its human progenitors within the first half of the twenty-first century. It seemed like a poignant conclusion, and in any event I personally found it difficult to look beyond so transforming an outcome.

  Over the last twenty years, I have come to appreciate an important metaidea: that the power of ideas to transform the world is itself accelerating. Although people readily agree with this observation when it is simply stated, relatively few observers truly appreciate its profound implications. Within the next several decades, we will have the opportunity to apply ideas to conquer age-old problems—and introduce a few new problems along the way.

  During the 1990s, I gathered empirical data on the apparent acceleration of all information-related technologies and sought to refine the mathematical models underlying these observations. I developed a theory I call the law of accelerating returns, which explains why technology and evolutionary processes in general progress in an exponential fashion.5 In The Age of Spiritual Machines (ASM), which I wrote in 1998, I sought to articulate the nature of human life as it would exist past the point when machine and human cognition blurred. Indeed, I’ve seen this epoch as an increasingly intimate collaboration between our biological heritage and a future that transcends biology.

  Since the publication of ASM, I have begun to reflect on the future of our civilization and its relationship to our place in the universe. Although it may seem difficult to envision the capabilities of a future civilization whose intelligence vastly outstrips our own, our ability to create models of reality in our mind enables us to articulate meaningful insights into the implications of this impending merger of our biological thinking with the nonbiological intelligence we are creating. This, then, is the story I wish to tell in this book. The story is predicated on the idea that we have the ability to understand our own intelligence—to access our own source code, if you will—and then revise and expand it.

  Some observers question whether we are capable of applying our own thinking to understand our own thinking. AI researcher Douglas Hofstadter muses that “it could be simply an accident of fate that our brains are too weak to understand themselves. Think of the lowly giraffe, for instance, whose brain is obviously far below the level required for self-understanding—yet it is remarkably similar to our brain.”6 However, we have already succeeded in modeling portions of our brain—neurons and substantial neural regions—and the complexity of such models is growing rapidly. Our progress in reverse engineering the human brain, a key issue that I will describe in detail in this book, demon
strates that we do indeed have the ability to understand, to model, and to extend our own intelligence. This is one aspect of the uniqueness of our species: our intelligence is just sufficiently above the critical threshold necessary for us to scale our own ability to unrestricted heights of creative power—and we have the opposable appendage (our thumbs) necessary to manipulate the universe to our will.

  A word on magic: when I was reading the Tom Swift Jr. books, I was also an avid magician. I enjoyed the delight of my audiences in experiencing apparently impossible transformations of reality. In my teen years, I replaced my parlor magic with technology projects. I discovered that unlike mere tricks, technology does not lose its transcendent power when its secrets are revealed. I am often reminded of Arthur C. Clarke’s third law, that “any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.”

  Consider J. K. Rowling’s Harry Potter stories from this perspective. These tales may be imaginary, but they are not unreasonable visions of our world as it will exist only a few decades from now. Essentially all of the Potter “magic” will be realized through the technologies I will explore in this book. Playing quidditch and transforming people and objects into other forms will be feasible in full-immersion virtual-reality environments, as well as in real reality, using nanoscale devices. More dubious is the time reversal (as described in Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban), although serious proposals have even been put forward for accomplishing something along these lines (without giving rise to causality paradoxes), at least for bits of information, which essentially is what we comprise. (See the discussion in chapter 3 on the ultimate limits of computation.)